If Trump Wins: New Nukes in Europe and Nukes for Ukraine?

Juris Kaža
4 min readJul 14, 2024

Escalating tensions with Russia and the reduction United States involvement and support for NATO with the likely election of Donald Trump will leave Northern and Eastern Europe seeking an independent security solution. Poland, Sweden, and Finland could lead the effort to develop a credible nuclear deterrent to replace the doubtful nuclear commitment of a Trump White House and ensure regional stability and security.

One path could be to call a regional security conference in Warsaw, attended by representatives from Poland, Sweden, Finland, the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), and other interested Eastern European countries.

The primary agenda would be to discuss the security void left by the US draw down from NATO and the growing threat from an increasingly aggressive Russia as the war in Ukraine continues as a bloody stalemate or is forced into a frozen-conflict temporary ceasefire.

The conference could reach a consensus to explore the development of a regional nuclear deterrent as a last-resort measure for ensuring security and deterring potential aggression.

A battlefield nuclear strike may be the last resort at preventing a Russian invasion of a neighboring country once the US nuclear umbrella is withdrawn or weakened under a likely Trump presidency.

The participating countries would establish a Joint Defense Council (JDC) to coordinate the development and deployment of the nuclear deterrent. The JDC would be tasked with creating a comprehensive…

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Juris Kaža
Juris Kaža

Written by Juris Kaža

A freelance journalist based in Riga, Latvia who has covered the country and region for 20 years. Speak native Latvian and English, fluent Swedish and German.